Dow 14,000?

Even with the Subprime mess, companies are continuing to surprise the street with exceptional earnings. Most likely the Fed will keep interest rates steady even though most strategists think they will lower. Inflation is still a persistent problem even though China and other up and coming countries are making the world more competitive. One important aspect that most people don't pay attention to is the "pipeline" of M&A activity. That means the Investment Banks will have a windfall of profits this year. Couple that with a wide "crack" between crude oil and unleaded gas and you can see how profitable the energy companies will be again this year. Both those industries will surprise everyone. That is why they are all trading close to 10 times earnings. Another sector ripe for great gains is Technology. As people upgrade to Windows Vista (only 15% of computers are upgradable today), this will cause another spending boom that is long due. The last cycle was in 98' to 99'. These are important undercurrents that will help the market reach new highs. The S&P is fairly valued at 1700 and I see the Dow crossing the 14,000 mark by year end. Of course these are just predictions but let's see if I am right.

International

Given the decline in the dollar over the last year, it is a great idea to keep between 15-40% of your portfolio in overseas companies. One might also include Mulit-national corporations like GE or Coke because they derive over 50% of their revenues from countries other than the US. This should help balance the value of your dollar denominated assets with other assets that generate the revenues in other currencies like the Euro. For many, one idea is a Global Fund that allows the manager to decide where to invest. Emerging markets should only be a small percentage of the International allocation due to the risk inherent with their economies. Just remember what happened to Brazil and Russia in the 90's. There are many ways to make money investing and having a portion overseas will help with diversification.